Tuesday, March 3, 2009

When Nouriel speaks, everyone listens...

With equity markets closing the day in virtual freefall, the dire predictions held by Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics at NYU, appear to all be coming true. Roubini must have felt like the boy who kept crying wolf. The story goes that the boy cried wolf so often that everyone started ignoring him, so that when the wolf actually appeared, no one was paying attention. Now that the wolf has devoured half the town, it seems you can't open a newspaper, go to a financial website, or turn on CNBC or Fox Business and NOT see some caption from Roubini.

He has now become a media sensation and markets hang on his every dire prediction. And he has played the dance for his fans, continuing his trend of being the biggest bear by predicting end-of-world scenarios. As more bears have jumped on the pessimistic bandwagon, Roubini has become even more bearish (if this was possible) - he has gone from being the "boy who cried wolf" to Aesop's fable of "Chicken Little."














Dr. Doom, as he is sometimes called on CNBC, has recently been called out by Bill Gross, Managing Director and PIMCO co-founder, as not having "thought through" his suggestion to nationalize the U.S. banking system. But this is a rarity - most analysts, economists and pundits have stayed clear of Roubini's path as the market continues to cooperate with this uber-Bear.

One thing that this Investor will say, without crossing Dr. Doom (at least for now), is that when the herd starts forming (whether it's a herd of bulls or bears), look to fresh ideas as the tired old ones will eventually lead you off a cliff...

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